One way the Trump administration could counter the efforts of a Democrat-controlled Congress is by having U.S. President Donald Trump issue an emergency waiver to complete foreign military sales.
By Aaron Bandler, JNS
If Democrats take control of Congress in the midterm elections and the current Israeli government remains in power, “there’s going to be political warfare between the Democratic Party and Mr. Netanyahu,” according to William Galston, senior fellow and the chair in governance studies at the Brookings Institution.
“They will push legislation very hard to end the Iran war, and it’s not inconceivable that they could get a fair amount of Republican support for that,” he told JNS.
“The war is very unpopular in both political parties, and unfortunately—and I say this as a Jewish American—there’s a growing perception that the war is serving Israel’s interests a lot more than it’s serving that of the United States,” Galston said.
“Even worse, that the Israeli prime minister snookered the American president into getting into this mess.”
“This is a very, very bad position for the government of Israel to find itself in, should Mr. Netanyahu be returned to office,” he told JNS.
Galston said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “better hope that his existing stocks of armaments, particularly 2,000-pound bombs, is adequate, because I don’t think there’s going to be another round of arms shipments to Israel if the Democrats take over.”
The Democrats could also implement restrictions on arms shipments that most U.S. allies are subjected to, such as “prohibitions on the use of heavy bombs in urban areas,” according to Galston.
“The United States under both Trump and Biden did almost nothing to restrain Israel in the use of those bombs in Gaza,” he told JNS. “That will change, I promise you.”
Galston believes that “outright American aid to Israel is going to come to an end,” if the Democrats take control of Congress and Netanyahu remains in power.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu has already said that, and I think there’s a lot of agreement in the United States that’s going to happen,” he said.
‘Breathing space’
Netanyahu told The Economist in January that he is seeking to wean Israel off of U.S. military aid in the next 10 years.
But if Netanyahu loses his position as Israeli prime minister, a Democrat-controlled Congress may give Israel “breathing space,” according to Galston.
“There will be a strong argument made within the party that the new government may be materially different from its predecessor and that it ought to be given a chance to shift towards what Democrats would regard as a more acceptable policy or set of policies,” he told JNS.
“I can’t tell you how long it would last, but I think that there would be an enormous amount of relief—not just among Democrats, but certainly among Democrats—that they won’t have to deal with Netanyahu anymore,” he said.
If Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the Yashar Party in Israel, were to become prime minister, Galston’s advice would be to “rein in the lawlessness on the West Bank and stop these terrible stories that are really reshaping American opinion.”
“It means a complete change, not only of leadership, but possibly of personnel in the civilian police forces,” Galston told JNS. “It means giving the IDF a new set of orders, and it means telling extremist settlers, ‘You’ve gone too far.’”
“We’ll see whether that happens, but if it doesn’t, if there is a new government, its honeymoon period is going to be very short,” he said.
Matthew Kenney, vice president of government affairs at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, told JNS that if the Democrats take control of Congress, there will be an “additional close examination of various elements of the relationship.”
In recent years, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has introduced joint resolutions of disapproval against “specific foreign military sales items,” such as an April resolution blocking the sale of bombs to Israel that received the support of 36 Senate Democrats, Kenney said.
“It’s likely that effort would continue,” he told JNS.
“Some Democrats have argued that some of their votes on those were really just to send a message to the Netanyahu government, so whether or not they would do the same if there’s a different government in Israel, I think is a little bit of an open question.”
“It’s indicative that they want to basically get themselves on the record saying that, ‘Hey, we have a way to flag these sales,’” he said.
Kenney thinks that a Democrat-controlled Congress will engage in more oversight of the Iran war, as the Democrats have questioned the legality of the conflict and have said that Congress never voted to authorize it.
He also thinks that senior Trump administration officials, like Pete Hegseth, U.S. defense secretary, could face impeachment in a Democratic Congress over the war.
It’s unlikely the Senate could reach a two-thirds majority to convict Hegseth, but impeaching him would send “a very strong political message,” according to Kenney.
“There’s only been two prior cabinet secretaries impeached,” he told JNS. “One was in the Grant administration way back, 150 years ago, and then Secretary Mayorkas a few years ago.”
“It’s very uncommon, but it’s a way to kind of highlight opposition to the conflict,” he said.
‘Open question’
When the Democrats took control of Congress in 2007, there were around 60 votes on withdrawing the United States from the Iraq War, and there were “daily” or “weekly” votes on the matter for several months, according to Kenney.
“Overall, there would be a huge amount of focus and attention on that for as long as the Iran conflict continues,” he told JNS.
“I think you’d probably see more of that than you would necessarily anything else.”
If a new government were to take over in Israel, Kenney thinks it would “impact things on the margins, but I don’t think the fundamental kind of political dynamics change radically.”
Some Democrats have specifically centered their criticism of the Israeli government on Netanyahu, so it’s an “open question” if “they would continue to oppose Israeli government actions under different leadership,” he said.
“To a certain extent, the focus on Prime Minister Netanyahu is a bit of a fig leaf for broader concerns with the U.S.-Israel relationship, and certainly the Democratic base would continue to push elected officials in the same way, regardless of who is in charge,” Kenney told JNS.
One way the Trump administration could counter the efforts of a Democrat-controlled Congress is by having U.S. President Donald Trump issue an emergency waiver to complete foreign military sales, as administrations have done in the past for sales to countries like Israel and Saudi Arabia, according to Kenney.
“This is the sort of thing where the president would be able, to a certain extent, to override it and prevent Democrats from stopping the sales,” he told JNS.
“But that obviously increases the political heat on him to be able to do that.”
Tyler Stapleton, senior director of government relations at FDD Action, a Foundation for Defense of Democracies affiliate, told JNS that “the relationship between the U.S. and Israel will remain strong despite commentary surrounding the elections in Israel and the midterm elections in the U.S.”
“A Democrat-controlled House and Senate would likely put additional pressure on Israel through targeted sanctions bills focused on Israel’s policies in Gaza and the West Bank,” Stapleton said.
“Arms sales to Israel would also come under greater scrutiny with additional votes to delay or restrict weapon transfers,” he told JNS.
“A Democrat-held House and Senate would also try to restrict aid for U.S. military involvement in additional strikes on Iran.”
One of the biggest policy changes in a Democrat-controlled Congress could be “how the Department of War will continue to pay for operations against Iran and what potential funding lapses or government shutdowns may occur as a result,” according to Stapleton.
(Trump refers to the Defense Department as the Department of War.)
“Military-to-military cooperation between the U.S. and Israel would likely continue without major issues,” Stapleton told JNS.
“More contentious issues may arise, such as efforts to support boycotts of Israel, but it is not likely the Trump administration would allow these efforts to move forward and likely would have the votes necessary to defeat any veto override procedures.”
“Major changes in Israel following elections this week may blunt some of the criticism Democrats have had for the policies of the Netanyahu government and members of his cabinet,” he said.
